Bitcoin poised for possible “relief bounce” as stabilization signs emerge
Bitcoin may be on the verge of a fresh rebound, say analysts, after recent movements suggested the market may have found a local bottom. According to a new report from Bitfinex, a combination of extreme deleveraging, capitulation among short-term holders, and early signs of seller exhaustion has created conditions ripe for what the exchange calls a “relief bounce.”
The remarks from Bitfinex came just before Bitcoin surged nearly 8% in a single day, briefly pushing toward the $94,000 mark. At the time of the report, the price hovered near $91,440.
According to analysts, the rebound reflects a broader cleanup of over-leveraged positions, which had previously fueled volatility and amplified downside risks.
Leaner leverage, lower risk of sudden crash
Bitfinex notes the market is now operating on a “leaner leverage base,” meaning fewer heavily leveraged positions remain open. This significantly lowers the chance of a sudden, liquidation-driven crash that could drag prices sharply down. Indeed, earlier in the cycle — specifically on October 10 — around US$ 19 billion was wiped out in what many described as an over-leveraged sell-off. That event triggered a broader market decline and pushed Bitcoin down to a bottom near $82,000 on November 21.
With the excess leverage out of the system, remaining investors may be better positioned to weather future market swings. Combined with waning selling pressure, this sets the stage for a more stable consolidation phase and possibly renewed upward momentum.
Is the four-year cycle dead?
The recent price action and market structure have led some traders to question the conventional four-year Bitcoin cycle. Historically, those cycles ended in major peaks, but this time investors are watching carefully whether Bitcoin’s recent bounce marks a new trend or a temporary reprieve.
It remains uncertain how Bitcoin will finish the year: December historically tends to be quieter for the cryptocurrency, delivering modest average returns. Nevertheless, some market voices remain optimistic about further gains. According to one analyst, “Bitcoin is closer to the bottom than to the top.”
Hopeful but cautious
The combination of deleveraging, a thinner leverage base, and signs of selling exhaustion provides a hopeful backdrop for Bitcoin. While nothing is guaranteed, the conditions described by Bitfinex suggest a potential stabilization phase — and maybe even the start of a new rally. Investors and traders will be watching key support and resistance levels closely, as the balance between renewed confidence and lingering uncertainty will likely dictate where Bitcoin heads next.
Source: Cointelegraph
American Bitcoin adds $34 million in BTC during november slump
American Bitcoin, the mining and accumulation firm co-founded by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., expanded its Bitcoin treasury significantly during the market downturn in November. In a company announcement released Wednesday, the firm revealed that it purchased an additional 363 BTC, valued at approximately $34 million, based on November price levels.
The latest acquisition brings American Bitcoin’s total holdings to 4,367 BTC as of December 2, up from 4,004 BTC disclosed on November 7. The data confirms that the company continued buying through one of Bitcoin’s steepest pullbacks of the year, during which the asset fell from a record high near $126,000 to lows around $82,000.
In its statement on X (formerly Twitter), the company emphasized that “strategic accumulation continues,” signaling that American Bitcoin views volatility as a long-term opportunity rather than a deterrent.
While the firm increased its Bitcoin holdings, it also endured significant stock market volatility. American Bitcoin’s shares dropped 38% on Tuesday following the unlock of pre-merger private placement shares, a common catalyst for short-term selling pressure in newly public companies.
Despite the sharp decline, shares rebounded 9.13% on Wednesday, closing at $2.39, up from $2.19 the previous day. Co-founder Eric Trump downplayed concerns surrounding the drop, stating that the volatility was fully expected and expressing confidence in the company’s operational performance and long-term outlook.
American Bitcoin’s fundamentals appear to support Trump’s confidence. The firm reported a strong third quarter, posting $64.2 million in revenue, a substantial increase from $11.6 million year-over-year. Net income rose to $3.5 million, a major turnaround from the $0.6 million loss reported in the same quarter last year.
The results highlight rapid growth in both mining capacity and Bitcoin accumulation — two pillars of the company’s strategy as it positions itself as a leading U.S.-based Bitcoin miner.
The company’s continued accumulation comes as Bitcoin begins to recover from its November slump. As of Thursday, Bitcoin is up 0.64% in the past 24 hours, trading near $93,332, according to The Block’s price index.
With improving fundamentals and sustained accumulation, American Bitcoin appears committed to scaling its BTC position regardless of short-term turbulence, a stance likely to draw continued attention as markets approach 2026.
Source: The Block
Bitwise CIO: “Strategy will not be forced to sell its Bitcoin”
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pushed back strongly against growing speculation that Strategy — the firm formerly known as MicroStrategy — may be compelled to sell part of its massive Bitcoin treasury. In a note to clients titled “No, Virginia, Strategy Is Not Going To Sell Its BTC,” Hougan argued that neither index rebalancing nor market stress creates any mechanism that would force the company to unwind its multibillion-dollar position.
The concerns stem from an upcoming MSCI decision on whether to exclude digital-asset treasury companies from its investable indexes, a move JPMorgan estimates could trigger as much as $2.8 billion in passive outflows from Strategy stock. Hougan said he believes there is a 75% likelihood that Strategy will be removed when MSCI makes its final determination on January 15.
However, he emphasized that index changes historically have far less impact than investors fear. When Strategy was added to the Nasdaq-100 in 2023, passive funds bought $2.1 billion worth of shares, yet the stock price “barely moved.” Hougan added that much of Strategy’s decline since October is likely the market pricing in a potential removal, and he does not expect extreme volatility afterward.
The larger fear among investors is the idea of a “doom loop”: MSCI exclusion pushes the stock below net asset value (NAV), leading to financial strain that forces the company to sell Bitcoin. Hougan dismissed this as unfounded.
“There is nothing about MSTR’s price dropping below NAV that will force it to sell,” he wrote, noting that Strategy’s only financial obligations are interest payments of roughly $800 million per year and upcoming debt maturities — neither of which creates immediate pressure.
Supporting this point, Strategy recently disclosed a new $1.44 billion USD reserve, funded through at-the-market stock sales, specifically allocated to cover dividends and debt interest for the next 12–18 months. The firm also purchased 130 additional BTC this week, bringing total holdings to 650,000 BTC.
Co-founder Michael Saylor reinforced the message during an investor call: Strategy can sell Bitcoin if necessary, but does not need to. He argued the company could even sell highly appreciated Bitcoin to fund dividends while still increasing its overall BTC holdings over time.
Hougan also dismissed the notion that insiders might push for a sale if the stock, currently down 59% from its summer peak, continues declining. Saylor controls 42% of the voting power, has never sold Bitcoin during past drawdowns, and is widely regarded as one of the strongest long-term Bitcoin advocates in the market.
With Bitcoin trading near $93,000, well above Strategy’s average purchase price of $74,436, Hougan concluded that fears of forced liquidation “collapse under scrutiny.” The MSCI decision may create short-term noise, he said, but there is “no plausible near-term mechanism” that would require Strategy to sell any of its Bitcoin.
Source: The Block