Bitcoin’s real ‘Uptober’ could arrive in February, data suggests
Bitcoin’s modest performance at the start of 2026 has led some investors to question whether the bullish momentum of previous cycles has faded. Monthly gains currently sit around 2.2%, but historical data suggests that February, rather than October, may be Bitcoin’s most reliable bullish period. Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson argues that February represents the market’s true “Uptober” moment.
Since 2016, the week ending February 21 has delivered Bitcoin’s highest median weekly return at 8.4%, with prices closing higher roughly 60% of the time. On a broader level, February has historically produced a median weekly return of about 7%, outperforming October’s well-known seasonal strength. This consistency has made February a key month for identifying shifts in Bitcoin’s broader trend.
Peterson attributes February’s strength primarily to macroeconomic dynamics rather than crypto-specific catalysts. Mid-February coincides with the release of full-year corporate earnings and forward guidance, which often carries a constructive outlook. This environment tends to encourage risk-taking behavior across markets, prompting some capital rotation into higher-risk assets such as Bitcoin. According to Peterson, the two-week window from February 7 to February 21 stands out as particularly strong in historical data.
At the same time, early February has proven to be an important signal during bearish or corrective years. In 2018, Bitcoin rose modestly in early February before entering a prolonged decline. Similar early-month weakness occurred in 2022 and 2025, both of which ended as negative years. These patterns suggest that Bitcoin’s performance in the first three weeks of February can help determine whether the year leans bullish or bearish.
Despite recent volatility, Peterson believes Bitcoin could be well positioned for a rebound if macro stress indicators, such as the CBOE Volatility Index, begin to ease. Cooling volatility typically supports renewed risk appetite.
Longer-term projections remain optimistic. Researcher Sminston With estimates Bitcoin’s potential 2026 cycle peak between $210,000 and $300,000 using the Bitcoin Decay Channel model. While the model does not forecast timing, its historical price ranges have aligned well with prior cycles.
Additional momentum indicators support this view. Analyst Sina notes that Bitcoin’s broader momentum structure remains positive, with recent consolidation preserving long-term trend integrity. The January sell-off aligned closely with declines in US equities following renewed tariff concerns, suggesting a macro-driven move rather than structural weakness in Bitcoin. Supporting this assessment, Realized Cap data continues to rise, indicating ongoing spot demand even as prices consolidate.
Source: Cointelegraph
Cathie Wood says $28 billion deleveraging event drove Bitcoin’s recent pullback
Cathie Wood has attributed Bitcoin’s recent price pullback to a large-scale deleveraging event rather than a breakdown in fundamentals. According to the ARK Invest CEO, roughly $28 billion in leveraged positions were unwound after a software-related issue at Binance in October, creating intense but temporary selling pressure across the crypto market.
Wood’s assessment highlights a recurring feature of Bitcoin’s market structure. Sharp corrections are often driven by internal mechanics such as leverage imbalances, forced liquidations, and technical disruptions, rather than changes in long-term adoption, network health, or macroeconomic demand.
Leverage plays a central role in amplifying Bitcoin’s price movements. When large concentrations of leveraged positions build up, even a relatively small trigger can cascade through derivatives markets. Once liquidation thresholds are hit, selling accelerates regardless of spot demand, pushing prices lower in a short time frame.
During an interview, Wood explained that the recent selloff was not caused by weakening investor interest or deteriorating macro conditions. Instead, it stemmed from forced liquidations tied to excessive leverage.
She pointed specifically to a Binance software glitch on October 10, which sparked a wave of liquidations that spread rapidly through futures and options markets. As leveraged positions were closed automatically, downside momentum intensified, despite no meaningful change in Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals.
Wood emphasized that deleveraging events of this magnitude tend to be self-limiting. Once excess leverage is flushed from the system, selling pressure typically subsides. Markets then enter a phase of reduced volatility, allowing prices to stabilize as positioning resets.
Based on this dynamic, Wood expects Bitcoin to trade within a broad consolidation range between $80,000 and $90,000 in the near term while the market digests the move.
Wood’s comments reinforce a familiar pattern seen across multiple Bitcoin cycles. Major drawdowns frequently coincide with leverage unwinds rather than structural shifts in adoption or usage of Bitcoin.
Historically, periods of sideways price action following deleveraging events have acted as reset phases. Once leverage normalizes and volatility compresses, markets are often better positioned for renewed trend development. However, analysts note that this typically requires improving liquidity conditions and a return of broader risk appetite.
The episode also underscores how market infrastructure continues to influence short-term price behavior. Even as institutional participation increases, Bitcoin remains sensitive to leverage concentration and technical failures at major exchanges.
Overall, Wood’s analysis suggests the recent pullback may represent the end of a mechanical adjustment rather than the start of a deeper downturn. If selling pressure has indeed been exhausted, Bitcoin could be entering the latter stages of its current cycle with a more stable foundation.
Source: Techgaged
Tether is buying over $1 billion in gold each month and storing it in Switzerland
Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, has significantly expanded its gold reserves, purchasing physical gold at a pace of up to two metric tons per week. According to CEO Paolo Ardoino, the company plans to maintain this buying rate for at least the next several months, which translates into more than $1 billion in gold purchases per month at current market prices.
The acquired gold is stored in a highly secure former nuclear bunker in Switzerland, which Ardoino described as resembling a “James Bond–style” facility. With these ongoing purchases, Tether has amassed approximately 140 metric tons of gold, valued at an estimated $24 billion. This makes the company one of the largest known non-sovereign holders of gold, rivaled only by governments, central banks, and major gold-backed exchange-traded funds.
Most of Tether’s gold holdings are maintained as part of the company’s own reserves, while a portion backs its gold-linked stablecoin, XAUT. XAUT currently has a market capitalization of roughly $2.7 billion and is designed to provide tokenized exposure to physical gold. In the final quarter of 2025 alone, Tether added 27 metric tons of gold to its holdings, surpassing the gold-buying activity of countries such as Greece, Qatar, and Australia during the same period.
Ardoino has framed the strategy as a response to declining trust in traditional monetary systems. He stated that operating at a scale comparable to sovereign gold holders brings increased responsibility, positioning Tether Gold as an alternative form of financial certainty. The company argues that tokenized gold offers greater transparency and ownership clarity than traditional gold investment vehicles.
This view is echoed by Björn Schmidtke, CEO of Aurelion, the firm managing Tether’s gold treasury operations. Schmidtke argues that most gold investments today are effectively “paper gold,” held through ETFs and financial instruments that do not grant investors clear ownership of specific physical bars. He estimates that around 98% of gold investments fall into this category. In a severe market crisis, he warns, large-scale redemptions could expose structural weaknesses in these paper-based systems. Tokenized gold, by contrast, provides verifiable ownership and can reduce bottlenecks in physical delivery.
Tether’s aggressive accumulation has also fueled speculation about its role in gold’s recent price surge. Gold prices have risen more than 90% over the past 12 months, reaching approximately $5,260 per ounce. While analysts at Jefferies suggest Tether’s purchases have contributed to this rally, they note that sustained buying by central banks has also been a major driver. Countries such as Poland, Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Azerbaijan were among the largest buyers last year.
Ardoino further suggested that some gold accumulation may be strategic, anticipating potential launches of tokenized gold products by foreign governments, possibly as alternatives to the US dollar. Several BRICS nations are among the largest net buyers of gold, highlighting a broader geopolitical shift toward hard assets, even as Russia has reduced its holdings amid ongoing conflict.
Source: Coindesk