Grayscale forecasts Bitcoin to hit new all-time high in first half of 2026
Grayscale, one of the largest digital asset managers, expects Bitcoin (BTC) to reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, driven by rising macro demand, clearer regulation and growing institutional participation, according to its 2026 outlook report.
In its report, Grayscale argues that macroeconomic conditions will increasingly favour scarce digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The firm points to mounting public debt, inflation risks and fiat currency debasement, which it believes will push investors to seek alternative stores of value. As long as these pressures persist, portfolio demand for Bitcoin is expected to rise.
Analysts from Grayscale also suggest that Bitcoin’s next leg higher will coincide with a shift away from the traditional four-year cycle pattern often associated with Bitcoin price movements. According to the firm, the market is entering a new phase in which institutional capital, macro hedging demand and regulatory clarity play a more prominent role than historically cyclical patterns.
Grayscale highlighted a marked improvement in the regulatory environment, especially in the United States, as another key catalyst for Bitcoin’s potential rise. Over the past couple of years, several enforcement cases against crypto firms were dropped and spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved, paving the way for new financial products. Additionally, the GENIUS Act on stablecoins was passed in 2025, reflecting a more collaborative regulatory approach that strives to balance innovation with consumer protection.
Looking ahead to 2026, Grayscale expects bipartisan crypto market structure legislation to be enacted in the U.S., which could further integrate blockchain-based finance into mainstream markets and encourage continued institutional inflows into Bitcoin and other core digital assets.
Grayscale also outlined ten key investment themes for the coming year in its report. Beyond Bitcoin price direction, these themes include the expansion of the stablecoin market, tokenization of assets, major growth in decentralized finance (DeFi) lending markets, and widespread adoption of staking. The firm believes these structural trends will help evolve the broader blockchain ecosystem and support sustainable long-term growth.
While short-term price movements remain uncertain, Grayscale’s outlook signals confidence that Bitcoin’s next major milestone could arrive sooner than many anticipate, making the first half of 2026 a potentially pivotal period for the flagship cryptocurrency.
Source: Cointelegraph
Bitcoin holds strong as altcoins lag, Glassnode data shows
Over the past three months, Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed nearly every other major cryptocurrency sector, even while its own price declined sharply, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports. According to the data, Bitcoin’s relative resilience highlights ongoing investor confidence in the flagship digital asset amid broader market weakness, reinforcing its status as the dominant and preferred destination for capital within the crypto ecosystem.
Glassnode’s analysis shows Bitcoin fell around 26% over the three-month period, but this decline was less severe than losses seen across most other crypto sectors. For example, Ethereum (ETH) has dropped roughly 36% and currently trades below key price levels, while AI-related tokens saw a roughly 48% decrease. Some of the worst-performing segments included memecoins, which plunged about 56%, and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization projects, down roughly 46%. DeFi tokens also delivered weaker returns relative to Bitcoin.
According to Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, the pattern reflected in Glassnode’s data suggests capital flows continue to favor Bitcoin, with investors preferring its relative stability and established reputation over higher-risk assets during market downturns. This persistent relative strength points to a market environment where BTC remains the dominant asset amid volatility, even as alternative coins struggle to regain momentum.
The findings also underscore how capital concentration around Bitcoin has endured despite periods where altcoins, particularly Ethereum, briefly recaptured some attention. Institutional reporting platforms noted phases of rotation toward ETH, but Bitcoin’s overall performance relative to the broader market has kept it in a leadership position.
Market observers interpret these trends as reflecting a cautious investment climate. As prices across altcoin sectors declined more sharply, many holders reduced exposure to higher-risk tokens and sought refuge in Bitcoin’s deeper liquidity and larger market cap. In turn, this highlights Bitcoin’s continued role as a “safe haven” within crypto, especially during periods of broader sell-offs and investor uncertainty.
Overall, the Glassnode data reinforces Bitcoin’s structural dominance in the market. Even in a downturn where all assets experienced losses, BTC has proven more resilient, attracting relative capital and signaling enduring confidence among investors amid challenging conditions for other digital assets.
Source: Cointelegraph
Institutional Bitcoin demand overtakes new supply for first time in six weeks
Institutional demand for Bitcoin (BTC) has once again exceeded the amount of newly issued supply, marking the first such shift in six weeks. The development suggests a potential change in market dynamics, as large buyers return after a period of consolidation and price weakness.
According to on-chain and fund flow data cited by analysts, institutional purchases have begun to outpace the daily issuance of new Bitcoin from miners. This is a notable reversal from recent weeks, during which selling pressure and subdued inflows allowed supply growth to exceed demand. The renewed imbalance points to growing confidence among professional investors, even as broader crypto markets remain cautious.
A key driver behind the shift appears to be spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which continue to attract steady inflows. While flows had slowed earlier in the quarter, recent data shows that ETF demand has picked up again, absorbing a meaningful share of newly mined BTC.
Analysts note that ETFs have fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s supply-demand profile. Unlike previous market cycles, institutional investors can now gain exposure through regulated products, creating a more consistent source of demand. When ETF inflows accelerate, they can quickly overwhelm miner issuance, especially in the post-halving environment.
The latest Bitcoin halving has reduced the block reward, cutting the amount of new BTC entering circulation each day. As a result, even moderate increases in institutional buying can have an outsized impact on supply dynamics.
Market observers stress that the recent flip does not guarantee an immediate price rally. However, it does reinforce the idea that Bitcoin’s structural supply constraints are becoming more relevant as institutional participation grows. With fewer coins available on the open market, sustained demand could increase upward price pressure over time.
Despite the positive signal, analysts remain cautious. Macroeconomic uncertainty, interest rate expectations, and broader risk sentiment continue to influence Bitcoin’s short-term performance. Some investors are waiting for clearer signals from central banks before increasing exposure further.
Still, the fact that institutional buying has overtaken new supply again suggests that downside risks may be increasingly limited. Long-term holders and institutions appear willing to accumulate at current levels, viewing recent price weakness as an opportunity rather than a warning sign.
If institutional demand continues to exceed issuance, Bitcoin could re-enter a supply-driven phase similar to previous bull markets. Historically, periods where demand persistently outstrips new supply have preceded stronger price trends, though often with delays.
For now, the return of institutional accumulation marks an important shift in sentiment. It reinforces Bitcoin’s evolving role as a strategic asset within institutional portfolios, rather than a purely speculative trade.
Source: Cointelegraph